By Comfort Asemota
Nigeria’s fiscal uncertainty has intensified as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepares to submit the 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, despite delays in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), key documents underpinning the nation’s budget.
The MTEF/FSP, approved by the Federal Executive Council on December 3, 2025, was transmitted to the Senate with a call for “expeditious legislative action.” However, the framework was due by August, leaving a four-month delay that has disrupted the statutory budget timeline. Experts warn this undermines the autonomy of the 10th National Assembly and raises legal questions about the 2026 budget’s foundation.
A lawmaker emphasized that Section 11(1)(b) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) mandates the MTEF be prepared at least four months before the new financial year, noting, “The MTEF gives life to the budget. Without it, the budget cannot legally begin.”
Fiscal challenges deepened after the Federal Government directed ministries and agencies to roll over 70% of their 2025 capital allocations into 2026, restricting the initiation of new projects and highlighting revenue constraints. Analysts warn this could create opportunities for corruption and delay benefits for citizens.
The Senate Committee on Finance has suspended scrutiny of the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP until detailed performance reports for 2024 and 2025 budgets are submitted. Committee Chair Senator Mohammed Sani Musa emphasized the need for full documentation on fund releases, capital execution, and revenue performance before legislative consideration.
Budget experts warn of deteriorating fiscal discipline. Seun Onigbinde, co-founder of BudgIT, described Nigeria’s budgeting system as chaotic, with capital implementation delays, overlapping budgets, and rising debt service, which now nearly doubles 2023 levels. Contractors remain unpaid, and unrealistic revenue projections strain agency budgets.
Despite the turmoil, the government maintains the 2026 budget will prioritize ward-based development, infrastructure, security, and domestic production to achieve the $1 trillion economy target. Still, without an approved MTEF, the legality and viability of the 2026 budget remain in question.
Ex-presidential candidate critiques Tinubu’s fiscal policies
Former 2023 presidential candidate Prof. Oluwamuyiwa Favour Ayodele criticized Tinubu’s economic policies, describing Nigeria’s economy as “awkward, backward, and retrogressive.” Speaking on Business Diet (WellsRadio 89.3FM, Ibadan), Ayodele cited soaring inflation (24.2%), weak productivity, and unreliable electricity as factors deepening citizens’ hardship.
He also warned that excessive taxation and poor policy direction are undermining national recovery, stressing that effective policies must be inclusive, relatable, and growth-oriented to drive economic revival. Ayodele reaffirmed his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election, marking his third attempt at the nation’s highest office.
