By Peter.
Oof, if you’re nursing bags from the late-October pump, this week’s flush is a gut punch. Bitcoin’s cratered ~28% from its $126K ATH, flirting with seven-month lows around $88K-$91K as of November 20, 2025, while the total market cap’s dipped to ~$3.04T (down 4.82% in 24 hours). Ninety-five percent of top coins are bleeding red, with the Fear & Greed Index scraping a dismal 15 (extreme fear)—its lowest since April’s capitulation. Zcash’s lonely 4% green in the top 50 feels like a cruel joke amid the carnage.
The macro storm’s raging: December Fed cut odds have tanked to ~47-50%, Bitcoin ETFs just bled a record $523M from BlackRock alone (fifth straight outflow day, $1.43B total), and leveraged longs are getting wrecked as risk-off hedges take hold. On Myriad (Decrypt’s prediction playground), 73% of bets are on BTC sub-$85K (vs. 27% for $115K), and 62% see ETH sliding to $2.5K over $4K—crowd wisdom screaming “more pain ahead.”
But charts don’t lie—let’s dissect if this is capitulation or the start of a deeper freeze.
Bitcoin (BTC): Death Cross Confirmed, But Oversold Signals a Wick?
BTC opened November 20 around $92,911 but nosedived 4%+ to ~$88,605-$91K intraday, breaching that pivotal $90K psych level for the first time since April. Over 30 days? A brutal 20%+ wipeout, erasing most 2025 gains.
Key Indicators:
- Death Cross Locked In: The 50-day EMA ($94K-ish) has sliced below the 200-day EMA (~$98K), a classic bear flag screaming seller dominance. BTC’s now trading 5-7% under both, with the 200-day as nasty overhead resistance—bulls need a miracle to flip it.
- ADX at 38+: Trend strength is screaming “very strong downtrend”—no weak chop here; momentum’s firmly bearish, backing the Fear & Greed abyss.
- RSI at 27: Deep oversold (<30)—stretched like a bowstring. This doesn’t halt dumps immediately, but it hints at exhaustion. Capitulation often sparks violent bounces once leverage flushes out.
- Squeeze Momentum: Bearish impulses firing—compression’s unleashing downward, but watch for a flip if volume spikes.
Myriad’s $85K Call? Spot On for Now. Fib support clusters at $84.5K, with major flooring at $71.5K. Lose $88K-$89K? Straight shot to $85K. But that RSI wick could reverse hard—think quick flush, then snap-back hunt to $95K-$98K if ETF flows stem. Upside to $115K? Nah—needs to smash the death cross and $100.5K trendline first. Only 27% odds feel right.
Ethereum (ETH): Golden Cross Crumbling, Even Worse Momentum
ETH’s getting hammered harder: Down 6.73% to ~$2,912 (from $3,122 open), scraping $2,896 lows—a 7%+ weekly bleed. It’s clinging to a “golden cross” (50-day EMA > 200-day), but that’s a mirage—the bull structure’s cracking as price dives below both.
Key Indicators:
- Golden Cross on Borrowed Time: 50-day ($3,100) barely above 200-day ($2,800)—one more dip, and it’s a death cross party. ETH’s already -5% under, testing the bull thesis hard.
- ADX at 42+: Stronger downtrend than BTC’s—very robust bear momentum, no mercy.
- RSI at 31: Kissing oversold—knife-edge. High ADX + near-oversold = potential for a sharp dump before the snap-back.
- Squeeze Momentum: Bearish bursts, echoing BTC’s pain.
Myriad’s $2.5K Bet? High Odds (62%) Feel Justified. Fibs eye $2.8K support, then $2.3K-$2.5K floor. Hold $2.7K-$2.8K or kiss the 200-day goodbye—straight to $2.5K. Rally to $4K? Dreamy 38% shot—needs $3.1K reclaim and macro mercy.
The Bottom Line: Capitulation or Crypto Winter 2.0?
Charts scream “oversold bounce incoming”—RSIs coiled, ADX peaks often precede reversals, and $947M+ liquidations (170K traders wrecked) suggest flush-out mode. Myriad’s downside bias aligns, but don’t sleep on a violent $95K-$100K BTC rip if Fed whispers soften or ETF flows flip. ETH’s golden cross tease could spark too, but momentum favors bears short-term.
This dip’s testing HODL resolve—buy the fear at 15, or wait for $85K blood? Your play? Charts say wick low, then hunt. Stay frosty. 📉🔴 #BTCDeathCross #ETHBear #CryptoCapitulation
