By Peter.
Global stocks rallied Monday, November 24, 2025, buoyed by rising odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut (now ~60% for 25bps, per CME FedWatch), despite policymaker divisions. The STOXX 600 climbed 0.5% to 525.12, rebounding from a 2.2% weekly drop amid tech valuation jitters. Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%, S&P 500 futures 0.55%, while MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan gained 1%.
| Asset/Index | Close/Level (Nov 24) |
|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | 525.12 (+0.5%) |
| S&P 500 Futures | +0.55% |
| Nasdaq Futures | +0.8% |
| MSCI AP ex-Japan | +1% |
Fed Focus: NY Fed’s John Williams hinted at “near-term” easing, lifting sentiment. Goldman Sachs eyes a December cut, then two more in 2026 (to 3-3.25%). But data fog from the October government shutdown (canceled CPI release) tempers bets—Generali’s Paolo Zanghieri sees 50/50 odds for December, warning markets overprice 2026 cuts (expects just 50bps by summer).
UK Budget Watch: Rachel Reeves unveils her fiscal blueprint Wednesday, with pound flat at $1.3098 amid growth/inflation scrutiny.
Yen Alert: USD/JPY hit 156.86 (+0.3%), down 1.8% in November—worst major vs. dollar. Tokyo’s verbal interventions (Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama) cap slides, but Maybank’s Saktiandi Supaat predicts more upside: “They’ll live with it; interventions slow, don’t stop.”
Commodities Dip: Brent crude fell 0.5% to $62.27/barrel on U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks potentially unlocking Russian supply (easing sanctions). Spot gold held at $4,064/oz.
Week Ahead: U.S. retail sales/PPI data (Tuesday/Wednesday) could sway Fed views; euro steady at $1.15295 amid ECB echoes.
Risks tilt to more cuts if jobs weaken, but inflation stickiness may pause easing. Equities eye resilience; yen traders brace for FX fireworks.
#GlobalMarkets #FedRateCut #USDJPY #G20Budget
