By Ireti Asemota.
Nigerians have accompanied you during a time of fire, Mr. President. They have had to deal with the elimination of subsidies, foreign exchange shocks, inflation that depletes wages before payday, and reforms that have put a strain on household budgets. They did this because you requested time for reconstruction, reform, and restoration. The government has now announced that it will impose a 15% import tax on gasoline and diesel following this challenging year of sacrifice.
This choice, Mr. President, runs the risk of eroding faith. It is a relapse rather than reform, and it has the potential to erode Nigerians’ shaky faith in your leadership. The new tariff is described as a “market-responsive import framework” intended to “safeguard local refining capacity and stabilize the downstream market,” according to the State House memo that was leaked on October 10, 2025. However, Nigerians are not deceived by the rhetoric of protection when it leads to punishment.
The newly approved 15% import tariff on petrol and diesel—applied to the cost, insurance, and freight of imported fuel—will increase the landing cost of petrol by roughly N150–N175 per litre. This means the average pump price could rise toward N970 per litre or more, directly affecting every household, transporter, food vendor, and generator owner.
While the policy is said to “protect local refineries,” in reality, it favors one refinery—the Dangote Refinery—at the expense of the nation. The refinery currently supplies only about 22 million litres daily, far below Nigeria’s 50 million-litre daily demand. The remaining supply will still come from imports, but now at a punitive 15% tax, making Dangote’s fuel appear cheaper—even when it isn’t. This is not protectionism; it is policy manipulation disguised as reform.
Behind this move lies a new “fuel cabal”—a network of influential businessmen linked to the refinery who control who lifts petrol, who gets access, and at what price. The deregulated market, designed to encourage competition, is now being reshaped for control and monopoly.
Proponents claim the tariff will “stabilize the market,” but history shows monopolies never stabilize markets—they strangle them. From cement to sugar, and now fuel, the pattern is familiar: establish dominance, then block competitors through state-backed policies. What is happening is not industrial policy; it is industrial capture.
The economic impact is immediate and severe. Every extra naira added to fuel prices ripples through the economy: transport fares rise 20–30%, food prices increase, inflation worsens, the middle class shrinks, and the poor lose more of their already limited resources. All this in the name of protecting an investor who cannot yet supply half the country’s needs.
Economic policy is a covenant between the government and the people. That covenant is broken when one enterprise is favored at the expense of millions.
Globally, countries like the United States and South Korea built resilient refining sectors through competition, not protection. Local refineries survived and thrived by innovating and adapting, not by lobbying for tariffs. If a refinery built with billions in investment cannot compete without shields, what value does it offer Nigerians—who have already contributed indirectly through public concessions, policy privileges, and infrastructure support?
Fairness is at stake. Every increase in fuel prices translates into rationed meals, collapsed margins for traders, and unaffordable transport for farmers. Nigerians may endure reforms once or twice, but repeated burdens break the social compact between citizens and the state.
Even under the guise of “corrective” policy, the tariff overwhelmingly benefits one player. As of October 20, Dangote’s petrol landed at N929.72 per litre, already more expensive than imported petrol at N802.44 per litre. Reports also indicate the refinery recently imported petrol as “blending components,” raising questions: is it a refinery, a blender, or both?
Mr President, Nigerians are not asking for perfection. They are asking for fairness, transparency, and competition. Your credibility, both domestically and internationally, depends not on who is protected, but on what is protected.
Viable alternatives exist:
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Encourage competition by allowing multiple refiners, marketers, and importers to operate freely.
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Ensure transparency in costs and production capacities.
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Phase in tariffs only when domestic supply meets or exceeds demand, not before.
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Conduct independent verification by the FCCPC and NMDPRA to ensure pricing aligns with global standards.
The choice is yours. Enforce this tariff, and Nigerians will see the government as serving the powerful rather than the people. Reject it, and you uphold fairness, competition, and trust—the foundations of the Nigeria you promised.
Respectfully,
Matthew, Policy and Governance Analyst, Abuja
