By Comfort Asemota
A sports data analytics model developed by Opta has ranked the leading contenders for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco, placing Nigeria fifth among the tournament favourites.
The 2025 AFCON is scheduled to begin on December 21, 2025, and will run until January 18, 2026, with anticipation growing ahead of what is expected to be a highly competitive tournament.
According to Opta’s supercomputer predictions, host nation Morocco leads the list of title contenders, with a 19.1 per cent probability of winning the competition. The Atlas Lions are aiming to secure their second AFCON title, having previously lifted the trophy in 1976.
Opta highlighted Morocco’s home advantage, strong form, and tactical balance as key factors behind their top ranking. The team is currently on an extended winning run and boasts a blend of defensive solidity and attacking quality, supported by key players across the squad.
Egypt are ranked second, with a 12.4 per cent chance of claiming a record-extending eighth AFCON title. The Pharaohs, seven-time champions, are seen as strong contenders due to their experience and the influence of star forward Mohamed Salah, who is seeking his first continental title.
Close behind are Senegal, ranked third with a 12.3 per cent probability. The Teranga Lions, winners of their first AFCON title at the 2021 edition, are viewed as one of the most balanced teams in the tournament, combining physical strength with attacking depth.
Former champions Algeria are ranked fourth, with a 12 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. Despite recent struggles in the group stages of past editions, Opta considers their squad capable of mounting a serious challenge.
Nigeria, three-time AFCON champions and runners-up at the 2023 tournament, are placed fifth with a 7.3 per cent chance of winning the title. Under new head coach Eric Chelle, the Super Eagles are praised for their attacking firepower, led by Victor Osimhen, although Opta notes that defensive concerns and a challenging group stage could pose difficulties.
Outside the top five, other nations considered capable of making deep runs include defending champions Ivory Coast, as well as Tunisia, Mali, Cameroon, South Africa, and DR Congo.
